Germany – Research and development services and related consultancy services – Forschungsprojekt - DZSF - Demografiefester ÖPNV – Ökonomische Analyse demografiebedingter Anpassungsbedarfe

The objective of the project is the economic analysis of demographic adaptation requirements in public local transport in Germany. The focus is on the question of which adaptation requirements arise from continuous, long-term demographic shifts and how these can be economically assessed. To this end, (i) the needs in public local transport that arise from demographic change are to be systematically identified, (ii) measures to meet these needs are to be compiled and evaluated, (iii) the long-term costs of adapting and not adapting the public local transport offer to demographic conditions are to be simulated, and (iv) a modular and demand-oriented catalogue of measures with recommendations for adapting public local transport to changing demographic conditions is to be created. The subject of the investigation is, in particular, spatial shifts in the population, for example as a result of the shrinkage of rural regions, as well as changes in the size of individual age cohorts. This also includes the question of to what extent and with which measures a demand-oriented mobility for smaller cohorts of children, young people and young adults can be ensured in the future. The project results are to serve affected actors (e.g. contracting authorities, funding bodies, planning authorities, transport companies) as an evidence-based basis for political and operational decisions. They are therefore to be prepared in a form that enables immediate use in specialist practice and in public communication. Given these intended uses, a high methodological robustness of the results is required.